Commercial Real Estate South Africa Market Size
| Study Period | 2020 - 2029 |
| Base Year For Estimation | 2023 |
| Market Size (2024) | USD 9.28 Billion |
| Market Size (2029) | USD 13.49 Billion |
| CAGR (2024 - 2029) | 7.63 % |
| Market Concentration | Low |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order |
Commercial Real Estate South Africa Market Analysis
The South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market size is estimated at USD 9.28 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 13.49 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 7.63% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
The office market in Durban moved from the traditional central business district (CBD) to the uMhlanga, La Lucia, and Ballito neighborhoods in recent years, as per experts. Its commercial real estate market has had to contend with harsh externalities over the past few years, above the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in increased operational risk for businesses based in the country. Nevertheless, the BPO industry has been given an advantageous environment due to its robust labor market and relative affordability in the office industry.
On the other side, most urban centers are demanding affordable residential housing. Since many of these pre-existing commercial buildings have services, repurposing them is generally simple and inexpensive. This tendency is already well established in many cities, and as more offices fall empty in the upcoming months and years, it will pick up speed.
Aside from saving money, repurposing a building also eases the burden on governments, which are already under strain to provide services and utilities. The fact that these converted buildings are already situated within cities further reduces the need for inhabitants to commute, decreasing traffic and the strain on public transportation infrastructure.
While the global economy is putting pressure on investors in most domestic real estate market segments, Makhosini Ndlovu, product head at FNB Commercial Property Finance, claims that those investing in student housing continue to see strong returns.
Yields remain very good for some universities, such as the University of Cape Town (UCT). Regardless of how many approvals are given for the construction of student housing near UCT, domestic and international demand for study opportunities will likely maintain demand for housing in the upcoming years.
Commercial Real Estate South Africa Market Trends
Increasing Demand for Office Space in South Africa
South Africa has seen its historically robust office fundamentals erode significantly over the past years. Vacancy rates have steadily risen as corporate consolidations and the rise in work-from-home result in more space being given up in the market. At the end of the second quarter of 2022, Johannesburg had the highest office vacancy rate across all major metropolitans.
The vacancy rate of office real estate increased across all major markets in South Africa between the Q1 of 2021 and the Q1 of 2022. Pretoria and the Surrounds had the lowest vacancy rate of 12.1% in 2022. On the other hand, Johannesburg had the highest share of vacant office space at over 19%. Office demand dynamics have shifted considerably as many corporations continue to scale down on space requirements in line with the new work-from-home and office rotational hybrid models.
Office demand dynamics have continued to soften as corporates look to scale down on space requirements in line with new work-from-home and office rotational hybrid models. The net effect is that office foot count has declined significantly from pre-pandemic levels. While office fundamentals are expected to soften over the foreseeable future, qualifying tenants may find great opportunities to secure favorable long-term lease arrangements.
Increased Growth in the Industrial Segment Creating Opportunities for the Market
The prime industrial property had the lowest investment yield among different commercial real estate types in Cape Town, South Africa, in the first quarter of 2022. Yield measures the expected return of an investment property and is calculated as the annual rental income divided by the property value. Investors expected a return on investment of 8.25% for prime industrial properties, while for rental housing, this figure was 9.5%.
According to JLL鈥檚 data, Pretoria, the Surrounds, and Cape Town were the South African markets with the lowest average vacancy rate for industrial real estate in the first quarter of 2022. During that quarter, approximately 4.9% of industrial real estate was vacant. In Johannesburg, this share was slightly higher at 4.95%.
According to industry experts, the industrial property sector was the only sector experiencing increased premium rents in Cape Town, South Africa, from 2020 to 2022. From USD 5.5 in the first quarter of 2020, industrial space's monthly square meter rent grew to USD 6.9 in the first quarter of 2022. On the other hand, rental rates for retail space halved during the period.
Commercial Real Estate South Africa Industry Overview
The South African market for commercial real estate is fragmented with local and global players. Developers are more inclined to spend money on reinventing property rather than building on new land. Some of the country's major commercial real estate players include Growthpoint Properties, Amdec Group, Pam Golding Properties, Excellerate JHI, and Chas Everitt Property Group. It is also noted that South Africans are migrating to invest in properties outside Africa, mainly in Europe, due to its robust economy and growth. The South African REIT sector is outperforming in terms of returns to investors. There is a need for investment in all sectors to foster further development in South Africa's commercial real estate sector.
Commercial Real Estate South Africa Market Leaders
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Growthpoint Properties
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Amdec Group
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Pam Golding Properties
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Excellerate JHI
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Chas Everitt Property Group
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Commercial Real Estate South Africa Market News
- November 2023: WeWork South Africa announced that it was accelerating its expansion plans as the rise in popularity of hybrid work saw a boost in demand for flexible office spaces.
- September 2023: Instant Group, a flexible workspace marketplace, acquired property advisor PSA to broaden its reach and grow its business across Africa.
Commercial Property South Africa Market Report - Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Study Assumptions
1.2 Scope of the Study
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4. MARKET INSIGHTS AND DYNAMICS
4.1 Current Economic Scenario and Consumer Sentiment
4.2 Commercial Real Estate Buying Trends - Socioeconomic and Demographic Insights
4.3 Government Initiatives and Regulatory Aspects for the Commercial Real Estate Market
4.4 Insights into Existing and Upcoming Projects
4.5 Insights into Interest Rate Regime for General Economy, and Real Estate Lending
4.6 Insights into Rental Yields in Commercial Real Estate Market
4.7 Insights into Capital Market Penetration and REIT Presence in Commercial Real Estate
4.8 Insights into Public-private Partnerships in Commercial Real Estate
4.9 Insights into Real Estate Tech and Startups Active in Real Estate Segment (Broking, Social Media, Facility Management, and Property Management)
4.10 Impact of COVID-19 on the Market
4.11 Market Dynamics
4.11.1 Drivers
4.11.1.1 Urbanization and Population Growth
4.11.1.2 Foreign Direct Investments
4.11.2 Restraints
4.11.2.1 Economic Uncertainty
4.11.2.2 Regulatory Environment
4.11.3 Opportunities
4.11.3.1 Urban Renewal and Development
4.11.3.2 Retail and Shopping Centers
4.12 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
4.12.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.12.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers/Buyers
4.12.3 Threat of New Entrants
4.12.4 Threat of Substitute Products
4.12.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
5. MARKET SEGMENTATION
5.1 By Type
5.1.1 Office
5.1.2 Retail
5.1.3 Industrial and Logistics
5.1.4 Hospitality
5.2 By Key City
5.2.1 Johannesburg
5.2.2 Cape Town
5.2.3 Durban
5.2.4 Port Elizabeth
5.2.5 Other Key Cities
6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
6.1 Market Concentration
6.2 Company Profiles
6.2.1 Growthpoint Properties
6.2.2 Amdec Group
6.2.3 PAM Golding Properties
6.2.4 Excellerate JHI
6.2.5 Chas Everitt Property Group
6.2.6 API Property Group
6.2.7 De Lucia Group
6.2.8 Legaro Property Development
6.2.9 Devmark Property Group (Pty) Ltd
6.2.10 Rabie Property Group (Pty) Ltd*
- *List Not Exhaustive
6.3 Other Companies
7. FUTURE OF THE MARKET
8. APPENDIX
Commercial Real Estate South Africa Industry Segmentation
Commercial real estate (CRE) is only used for business-related activities or to offer a workspace, as opposed to being utilized as a residence, which would fall under the residential real estate market. Most frequently, renters lease commercial real estate to conduct businesses that generate cash. A complete background analysis of the South African commercial real estate market, including the assessment of the economy and contribution of sectors in the economy, market overview, market size estimation for key segments, and emerging trends in the market segments, market dynamics, and geographical trends, and COVID-19 impact, is covered in the report.
The South African commercial real estate market is segmented by type (office, retail, industrial and logistics, and hospitality) and key cities (Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Port Elizabeth, and Other Key Cities). The report offers market sizes and forecasts for all the above segments in value (USD).
| By Type | |
| Office | |
| Retail | |
| Industrial and Logistics | |
| Hospitality |
| By Key City | |
| Johannesburg | |
| Cape Town | |
| Durban | |
| Port Elizabeth | |
| Other Key Cities |
Commercial Property South Africa Market Research FAQs
How big is the South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market?
The South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market size is expected to reach USD 9.28 billion in 2024 and grow at a CAGR of 7.63% to reach USD 13.49 billion by 2029.
What is the current South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market size?
In 2024, the South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market size is expected to reach USD 9.28 billion.
Who are the key players in South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market?
Growthpoint Properties, Amdec Group, Pam Golding Properties, Excellerate JHI and Chas Everitt Property Group are the major companies operating in the South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market.
What years does this South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market cover, and what was the market size in 2023?
In 2023, the South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market size was estimated at USD 8.57 billion. The report covers the South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market historical market size for years: 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The report also forecasts the South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market size for years: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029.
South Africa Commercial Property Industry Report
The South Africa commercial real estate market analysis offers a comprehensive market overview, focusing on key segments such as office, retail, industrial and logistics, and hospitality. This market report provides valuable insights into market trends and the market value across major cities including Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth. The market research highlights the market outlook and market forecast, emphasizing the anticipated market growth and market segmentation.
Industry analysis within the report reveals significant industry trends and industry statistics, helping stakeholders understand the market size and market data. The industry outlook and market review sections provide a detailed market update, while the market predictions and market leaders sections identify key players and future market directions.
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