Market Trends of Poland Renewable Energy Industry
Solar Energy Expected to be the Fastest-growing Segment
- Solar is one of the country's most promising renewable energy sources, and since 2011, it has grown substantially. From a mere 2 MW of solar capacity in 2011, the country has undergone various dynamic changes that took the overall solar capacity of the country to 11.16 GW as of this year.
- The considerable growth of the installed solar PV capacity in the country has been a result of supportive government policies and renewable energy auctions for both small-scale solar PV (less than 1 MW) and large-scale solar farms (greater than 1 MW). Under the "Energy Policy of Poland until 2040", the government is aiming at 20 GW of solar capacity by that year, overtaking wind as the largest renewable energy source.
- Although the government had set a target of 7.8 GW of solar capacity by 2030 under the National Plan for Energy and Climate, Poland's Institute for Renewable Energy (IEO) predicts to achieve the target by 2025. The growth in solar PV capacity is expected to continue the same trend as registered in 2021 and 2022, with an even higher annual installed capacity in the upcoming years.
- One of the main drivers for the increase in solar PV installed capacity is home installations, which have been incentivized by a popular subsidy program introduced by the government in 2019. Moreover, according to SolarPower Europe, by August 2022, Poland had over 1.1 million micro-installations of under 50 kW.
- Historically, the small-scale solar PV segment has dominated the solar energy market in Poland. However, the number of larger solar facilities above 1 MW in the country increased by 1.6 GW of capacity last year. The share of large-scale solar projects is expected to increase during the forecast period, rising to almost 50% of the total installed capacity in the latter part of the forecast period.
- Therefore, owing to the above points, solar energy is expected to be the fastest-growing segment during the forecast period.
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Favorable Government Policies Expected to Drive the Market Demand
- Poland is endowed with abundant solar energy resources, boasting irradiation of approximately 1000kwh/m2. Technological advancements, clubbed with the economy of scale in solar module manufacturing, have fostered the price reduction of solar modules. Furthermore, the economic viability of solar energy improved remarkably. Poland is poised to witness growth in the solar energy market in the near future, primarily driven by technological advancements and policy-level support from the government.
- To foster the deployment of solar energy, in November 2022, the government announced to increase the size of the state subsidies. The government will increase the size of the state subsidies available to households for the installation of solar panels and energy storage. the subsidy for photovoltaic installations to 6,000 zloty (EUR 1,275) and for energy storage to 15,000 zloty (EUR 3,187).
- Moreover, the government passed the National Energy Policy with a target to increase the renewable energy share in electricity to 27% by 2030. Such policies are expected to foster the country's renewable energy market growth during the forecast period.
- According to International Renewable Energy Agency, in 2022, total renwable energy installed capacity accounted for 21.24 GW with an annual growth rate of 29 % as compared to last year. With the favorable government policies and significant growth rate percentage, the renewable energy capacity of poland is expected to grow in the forecast period.
- In line with the new targets, Poland's installed offshore wind capacity is planned to reach 5.9 GW by 2030 and up to 11 GW by 2040. Meanwhile, solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is set to increase between 5 GW and 7 GW in 2030 and 10 GW-16 GW in 2040. The country has tremendous potential for wind energy capacity.
- Hence, high renewable targets set by the government and the introduction of the new policies in Poland are expected to drive the market in the country during the forecast period.
